Three Months Out - Taking back the Wisconsin State Assembly

We're three months out to the November elections, and things haven't looked better for Democrats in the Wisconsin State Legislature since six state senators were recalled in 2011!

All candidates running for public office released their campaign finance reports this week - there were some disappointments, but also many signs that parts of Wisconsin are ready for new Democratic leadership.

Seats are ranked as the 10 most likely to flip as to date.  

Key for maps

Dark Red: 15 points or more Romney Red: 10-15 points Romney Light Red: 5-10 points Romney Purple: 0-5 points Obama or Romney Light Blue: 5-10 points Obama Blue: 10-15 points Obama Dark Blue: 15 or more points Obama

1. THE 51ST ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

     Location: Rural South Central Wisconsin      Incumbent: OPEN      PVI: D+8      Rating: Likely Democratic

     

    Analysis: The 51st District hugs the Madison area in the west through Green,      Lafayette, Iowa, and Sauk Counties. This is quintessential rural farm country - the      largest municipality is Monroe, WI with a population of ~11K.

     Southwestern Wisconsin politically reminds me of the South, but in reverse. The area      is rapidly trending blue, with Tammy Baldwin and Barack Obama performing very      solidly in 2012; however, the area is historically very Republican, and the GOP tends          to still perform well on the local level. The 51st is a prime example of this. Obama      won 59% here, and avowed Madison liberal Tammy Baldwin won here with 55%.

     Republican Howard Marklein reclaimed this seat from the Democrats in the 2010      Wave and voted lockstep with the Scott Walker agenda despite the political nature of      his seat. Despite this, he defeated Mineral Point School Board member Mo May-      Grimm 53%-47%, running thirteen points ahead of Mitt Romney. Marklein is retiring            to run for the 17th State Senate Seat being vacated by the notoriously moderate      Republican Dale Schultz.

     Without a Republican incumbent, I firmly believe that Democrats will retake the 51st      in November. We have a very strong candidate in Dick Cates, a prominent farmer in      Spring Green with strong business, family and political roots in Southwestern      Wisconsin. Cates was actually being recruited to run for the State Senate due to his      perceived strength, though he obviously declined.

    Todd Novak is the Mayor of Dodgeville, and happens to be gay and has a politically      moderate reputation. Given the nature of this district, Novak could keep this red, thus      why I rate this as only 'likely' Democratic.  However, Cates is the dominant fundraiser,      entering August with an impressive $58,682 cash on hand. Barring any major      developments, Cates will be a State Assemblyman.

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2. THE 1ST ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

     Location: Rural Eastern Wisconsin, Door Peninsula      Incumbent: OPEN      PVI: R+2      Rating: Toss-up (tilts Dem)

     

    Analysis: The 1st District is just east of Titletown along the Door Peninsula, in Door      and Kewaunee counties. This is honestly some of the most beautiful stretch of land      in Wisconsin. This is a big site for natural tourism, and the largest population center      is the City of Sturgeon Bay, population ~9K.

     The first district is incredibly swingy - Mitt Romney narrowly won this      district, as did Tammy Baldwin; both with less than 50%.

     Republican Garey Bies was first elected in 2002, and has since won re-election      multiple times by very close margins. In 2008, he defeated Democrat Dick Skare      51%-49%, and four years later in 2012, he defeated Democratic challenger Patrick      Veeser by the same margin: 51%-49%. Luckily, Bies is retiring to run for Secretary      of State (for reasons past understanding), giving us a prime opportunity to win a      prime swing district.

     This is debatably the swingiest district in the state. Luckily, we seem to have      avoided a primary. Joe Majeski is a recently retired school system principal with the      backing of Patrick Veeser. He resides in the town of Sevastopol in Door County,      and is very politically connected in the area.

    There was a delightfully crowded five-way primary for the GOP nomination, and Joel      Kitchens - large animal veterinarian and Sturgeon Bay School Board President - emerged      the victor. However, the primary took its toll on his campaign warchest - $14,561 on      hand, lagging behind his Democratic opponent.

     Majeski was busily campaigning and      entered August with $32,979 cash on hand without a primary, whilst the GOP fought      one another. The race will undoubtedly tighten in the fall, but if Mary Burke wins or      keeps the race ultra-close in November, Majeski probably has the upper hand, given      the district's history of close elections.

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3. THE 88TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

     Location: Suburban Brown County (Green Bay)      Incumbent: OPEN      PVI: R+3      Rating: Pure toss-up

     

    Analysis: The 88th District is immediately west of the 1st District, taking up the      eastern section of Green Bay, WI, most of De Pere, WI and some conservative      suburbs and countryside. The nature of this district is distinctly suburban.

     This district is also distinctly swingy, though it is a tad more Red on the federal level.      Mitt Romney and Tommy Thompson both won the 88th with about 50%. That said,      Democrats do have slightly better luck downballot throughout the Fox Valley, so be      prepared for a hotly contested race.

     Republican John Klenke beat Democratic Assemblyman Jim Soletski in the 2010      Wave Election by just 267 votes. Democrats did not target this race in 2012 but      despite that, teacher and Democratic nominee Ward Bacon still managed to hold      Klenke to a small 52%-48% win. Suprisingly, Klenke is hanging up after just two      terms, opening up a prime opportunity for the Democrats.

     The race for this seat formed remarkably quickly, and the Democrats have rallied      around a strong candidate - Dan Robinson. Robinson is an elected official on the      Brown County Board from De Pere (the more conservative city in the 88th), and is a      College Administrator at St. Norberts.

    Similarly, the GOP very quickly rallied around one candidate - John Macco. Macco      runs a major financial consultancy business in Brown County, and ran for State      Senate last year against incumbent Democrat Dave Hansen, and ran at least one      point behind Mitt Romney. Macco also lost very narrowly to Senator Hansen in the        88th district.

     There's a potential perfect storm brewing here if Macco cannot perform better in        November. Both Robinson and Macco enter the race with slightly over $20,000 cash      on hand each, but Macco has been on the ballot here before, so he may have an      advantage. I won't be surprised to see either candidate win, but if Mary Burke wins,      I expect Dan Robinson will narrowly win as well.

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4. THE 96TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

     Location: Rural Southwestern Wisconsin      Incumbent: Lee Nerison (elected 2004)      PVI: D+5      Rating: Toss-up (Leans Flesch)

     

    Analysis: The 96th District takes us back to southwestern Wisconsin, which like the      51st is quintessential farm country. The largest population center here is Prairie du      Chien, which has a population of ~6K, just to give you an impression of the sort of      district we are dealing with here.

     The 96th is also much like the 51st district in its politically anachronistic nature.      President Obama solidly won the 26th with 56%, and Tammy Baldwin received 54%      of the vote. On paper, this district should go Blue no problem.

     GOP Representative Lee Nerison was elected to the 96th district back in 2004 and      has fended off tough races before. War Veteran Tim Johnson ran against Nerison in      2012, and Nerison managed not just to beat Johnson, but to trounce him      60%-40%. In numerical terms, Nerison ran sixteen points ahead of Mitt Romney.      Nerison is an adept politician who seems to understand campaigning in his district,      and has effectively cultivated a reputation as a moderate. He is only one of three      Republicans left in the State Assembly that voted against Act 10, the      controversial budget repair bill that spurred the infamous 2011 Capital Protests.

     This year, however, Nerison faces by far his strongest Democratic challenger to date.      Pete Flesch is the Crawford County Board Chair and a well-known farmer who has      lived in southwestern Wisconsin for his entire life. Flesch is waging a very active      campaign and edged out Representative Nerison in fundraising (Flesch has $26K on      hand while Nerison has $25K).

    In spite of Nerison's historical record of strength and prevailing moderate reputation, I      feel comfortable calling this race a toss-up. Flesch is giving Nerison by far his toughest      race in an area trending more and more blue, keeping up with fundraising and      campaigning the whole time.

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5. THE 42ND ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

     Location: Rural South Central Wisconsin, North of Madison      Incumbent: Keith Ripp (elected 2008)      PVI: EVEN      Rating: Toss-up (Tilts GOP)

     

    Analysis: The 42nd District lies about a half-hour north of Madison, WI, aka The      Shire. This is also very rural country, stretching from Northern Dane County,      through most of Columbia County, and stretching into conservative Dodge County.      The largest Population center here is quite small: Lodi, WI, with a roaring population      of 3K. Also proud home of Susie the Duck!

     Obama won this district with 51% (see very tight PVI) and Tommy Thompson also      won it narrowly. Columbia County and the surrounded area, however, has been      trending blue in a very dramatic way. Columbia County, for example, was one of just      three counties to go from Red to Blue during the Recall Election (meaning Columbia      County went for Scott Walker in 2010, but went for Tom Barrett in 2012).

     The incumbent here, however, is a tough cookie. Keith Ripp was narrowly elected in      2008 over Columbia County Board Member and RN Trish O'Neill. He defeated O'Neill      in 2010 by a larger 57%-43% in a rematch. Last year, he defeated Democrat Paula      Cooper in an untargeted race by 57%-47%.

     Ripp is not a particularly compelling or charismatic figure, but he is ridiculously well-      connected for a state legislator. The Ripp name is HUGE in Columbia County and      northern Dane County, synonymous with Big Agriculture with multiple parks and      establishments named "Ripp" in the area. He managed to raise 136K in his 2008      election, which is considered extremely good for State Senate Races.

     But that was 2008, and the political nature of Ripp's district is rapidly changing      underneath his feet. Democrats have been quick to support and campaign for      George Ferriter, Doylestown Village President and military engineer. Amazingly,      Ferriter has stayed competitive in fundraising (Ferriter enters August with $31K to      Ripp's $50K). Ferriter probably deserves an award for most active campaigner of all      these Democrats. I also had the privilege to meet Mr. Ferriter whose intelligence and      work ethic I found inspiring - this is to say I may be a little biased. Despite this, I      wouldn't be surprised if either Ferriter or Ripp won - I'd say Ripp has the upper hand      still due to incumbency and a famous last name, but only ever so slightly.

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6. THE 50TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

     Location: Rural Southwestern Wisconsin      Incumbent: Edward Brooks (elected 2008)      PVI: D+3      Rating: Leans Republican

     

    Analysis: The 50th District is also in southwestern Wisconsin, and is of a similar      nature to the districts I already discussed. It's extremely rural, and the largest      population center is in the city of Richland Center, population ~5K.

     President Obama also won this district by 54% and Tammy Baldwin won it by 52%,      an observation that continually puts the 50th on Democratic target lists in      November. That said, the district has been stubbornly GOP on the local level.

     Assemblyman Edward Brooks is an octogenarian Republican first elected in 2008. He      fought off Town of Fountain Clerk Sarah Ann Shanahan in the 2010 Wave Election      and narrowly defeated Shanahan in a 2012 rematch 50%-47%. He has something      of a nice-old-man reputation over in Richland Center, but he recently had some      negative headlines in which he skipped votes on a property tax cut to attend one of      his fundraisers.

     Brooks has an exceptionally intriguing Democratic opponent this year. Chris Miller is      a recently retired Lutheran preacher from Loganville, WI. He's effectively striking      bipartisan chords in the vein of Dale Schultz, and there appears to be greater Party      investment in taking back the 50th this cycle.

     Miller also pulled in a very good fundraising cycle, out-raising Rep. Brooks by about        $4K. Brooks still has $56K on hand, opposed to Miller's $21K so he still has the edge,        but the momentum is clearly on Miller's side.

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7. THE 93rd ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

     Location: Rural Northwestern Wisconsin      Incumbent: Warren Petryk (elected 2010)      PVI: R+5      Rating: Leans Republican

    Analysis: The 93rd District stretches from Eau Claire, through Pepin and Pierce      Counties all the way to the Winnesota border. The district is rural, though it also      bridges the Eau Claire and Twin Cities suburbs. Both Mitt Romney and Tommy      Thompson won this district very narrowly. Long story short, it consistently tilts GOP,      but only just barely.

     Warren Petryk defeated Democratic State Representative Jeff Smith in the 2010      Wave by a stunningly close 74 votes. He narrowly held off Smith for a 2012 rematch      51% to 49%.

    Jeff Smith is, yet again running for this district, making this third time in a row     Petryk and Smith will face off (this may make them the John Sununu and Jeanne     Shaheen of Wisconsin, for those who pay way too much attention to elections).     Though the district has a GOP tilt, Smith outran Senator Baldwin and President     Obama by about two points, showing that he has crossover appeal.

   Expect a close race no matter what: Smith has a good chance, but Petryk is favored     to hold on: his seat is redder in redistricting, and he has a cash advantage. Petryk     has an eye-popping $104K on hand, whilst Smith hangs behind with $17K. This     situation can change, but Smith will need to fundraise fast.

    Click here to donate to Jeff Smith via ActBlue! https://secure.actblue.com/...

(MAP FORTHCOMING)

8. THE 72ND ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

     Location: Central Wisconsin (Wisconsin Rapids)      Incumbent: Scott Krug (elected 2010)      PVI: R+3      Rating: Leans Republican

     

    Analysis: The 72nd District is located smack-dab in the middle of Wisconsin to the      immediate west of Stevens Point, WI. The district is rural, although Wisconsin Rapids is a      legitimate population center of ~18K.

     This is one of only two districts (the other one is the 1st district) where Tammy Baldwin      won, while Mitt Romney defeated Obama here. Suffice to say, this district is very swingy.

     Republican Scott Krug very narrowly defeated long-term incumbent Democrat Marlin      Schneider (Snarlin' Marlin, as he's known up in Rapids) in the 2010 Wave elections. Two      years later in 2012, Krug won re-election by just 109 votes against Wisconsin Rapids      firefighter Justin Pluess in a race that nearly went to recount. To make matters worse for      Rep. Krug going into 2014, he made headlines for reneging on a campaign promise      in 2010 that he would not take any taxpayer per diem money. He later turned out to      be one of the top-spenders of per diems and justified it with the worst possible      response: "That was a different campaign." Democrats have obviously taken pains to      use this to hammer Krug.

     Attorney Dana Duncan will be our candidate here barring an upset. He is the      President of the Port Edwards School Board, a moderately conservative community      adjacent to Wisconsin Rapids.

    Krug is not a popular representative, and this will likely be a third close race for the      Assemblyman. However, his gaffe was months ago and voters can sadly have short      memories. Also, despite being a top recruit Duncan reported rather disappointing      fundraising totals, raising only about $7K and having less than $3K on hand. Most      State Assembly have improved for Democrats in the past few months. This is one      exception.

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9. THE 68TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

     Location: Rural Northeastern Wisconsin and Suburban Eau Claire (Altoona)      Incumbent: Kathy Bernier (elected 2010)      PVI: EVEN      Rating: Leans Republican

     

    Analysis: The 68th District to the immediate east of Eau Claire, a small college town in      the northwestern section of the state. This area is suburban-to-rural, with Altoona      being the largest population center, ~7K.

     This district - and the Eau Claire area in general - is very swingy both in federal and      local elections. Obama won the district with 51% and Tammy Baldwin also won the      68th with 50%. This district is very capable of electing Democrats on all levels of      government.

     Representative Kathy Bernier was narrowly elected in the 2010 Wave Election,      defeating incumbent Democratic Assemblywoman Kristen Dexter by a 50%-50%      margin. In 2012, Bernier faced a tough election against a candidate who wasn't      considered to be highly targeted - Democratic Thorp School Board Member Judy Smriga.      Bernier held Smriga back to a 52%-48% margin of victory.

    Our candidate here is much younger than others on the list -  local farmer and Iraq      War Vet Jeff Peck. Peck had - and still has to some extent - a low profile, which is      why I rated this as a Likely GOP seat for 2014 a few months ago. However, Peck      brought in a surprisingly large amount of money - - bringing this seat into higher      competition. However, Bernier has fought tough races before, and has her own      formidable campaign warchest (). However, Peck has exactly the right profile for      a rural, midwestern democrat in this day and age.

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10. THE 37TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

     Location: Rural East Central Wisconsin (Watertown)      Incumbent: John Jagler (elected 2012)      PVI: R+6      Rating: Likely Republican

     

    Analysis: The 37th District is located in East Central Wisconsin, nestled in Dodge,      Jefferson, Dane and Columbia Counties. The major communities in the 37th are the      Democratic cities of DeForest and Columbus, and the largest city - the Republican      Watertown, population ~25K.

     This is a very small-c conservative part of the state, and it does usually vote for the      GOP. Mitt Romney won the 37th with 53%, as did Tommy Thompson. That said,      Jefferson County has had a much more active Democratic base since the Recall, as      has northern Dane County and Columbus.

     John Jagler was a Radio Host before he was elected in the 2012 elections after the      departure of Jeff Fitzgerald (the younger). He is mostly a blank slate for now, and is      still green enough as a Representative where he is still vulnerable. He defeated      Columbus School Board Vice President Mary Arnold 54%-46% in 2012.

    Mary Arnold is setting up for a rematch, and is very committed to taking this      reddish seat for Team Blue. Mary Arnold is a graduate and active member of Emerge      Wisconsin, and therefore has political chops and connections. It also bears mentioning      that she outperformed  Senator Baldwin by about 1.5-2 points and beat out President      Obama in parts of the district, which would suggest that Arnold already has crossover      appeal.

     However, neither Jagler nor Arnold had very strong fundraising periods - Arnold      enters August with a little over $7K on hand, and Jagler with $24K on hand. Given      the Republican margins on this district, we will need to do everything perfectly in      this race. Unfortunately, I predict a Jagler victory if this election were held today.

     As a sidenote, I ought to point out of all the candidates on this list, Mary Arnold is      by far the most prepared to be a state legislator - she also ran a remarkable      campaign in 2012. Arnold will make whatever contribution you give her stretch.

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11. THE 49TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

     Location: Rural Southwestern Wisconsin      Incumbent: Travis Tranel (elected 2010)      PVI: D+5      Rating: Safe Republican/Race to Watch

     

    The 49th District is located in the Southwestern corner of the State. It is similar to      the other Southwestern district I already discussed in agriculture and politics. The      largest population center here is the City of Platteville, population 11K, with an      inflated population due to a local UW four-year campus. Obama was elected      here with a 56% margin, and Tammy Baldwin with a 51% margin.

     Travis Tranel was first elected in the Republican Wave of 2010, after handily      defeating Democratic Assemblyman Phil Garthwaite. Tranel handily garnered an      independent reputation for himself, voting with Rep. Nerison and the Democrats      against the infamous Act 10 bill. This earned him a conservative primary challenge      in 2012, but it probably ultimately help him stave off Union President Carol Beals,      54%-46%. Given Obama's 56% margin here, this district will see competitive      elections for a long time with Tranel in office, but he unfortunately has staying      power.

     Democrats are running great races in the other three State Assembly seats in the      southwest - as it turns out, sadly the fourth time is not the charm. Our candidate here      is Chad Henneman. He unfortunately appears to have negligible visibility and      fundraising, and I had to do a fair amount of digging to discover his campaign      materials or more about him. Tranel will have tough races in his future. Unfortunately,      I suspect he will skate by this November.

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