Background Mark Honadel, a Republican State legislator and former Weldor out of South Milwaukee recently resigned from the State Assembly to pursue an opportunity in the private sector (rumor has it he's working for the mining industry. The Dems have rarely seriously contested this seat despite its swingy-ness, so now is the perfect time and a perfect opportunity.
The 21st Assembly District consists of a few of the Southern Milwaukee cities. These cities are Oak Park and South Milwaukee, and a little bit of the neighboring city of Franklin. The 21st is 87% White, so there is no significant minority block to tap into here. South Milwaukee is a city of 21,000, generally Democratic-leaning in its voting on state and federal elections. It is a manufacturing home for mining equipment. Oak Creek, a city of about 35,000, is another suburban blue-collar community. Oak Creek is also known, sadly, for a shooting that took place at the Sikh Temple downtown here, killing six and hurting several others.
Obama won the 21st District with slightly over 50% of the vote in 2008, but Romney won it in 2012, 51%-48%. Bottom line here is, the district is very swingy: it'll be tough, but it is possible and this is the kind of seat we need to win in order to take back the State Legislature in 2014. Let's get the ball rolling.
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Republican Primary Some background is necessary here as well. After Honadel resigned, Oak Creek Mayor Steve Scaffidi almost immediately declared his candidacy for State Assembly. Given that he represents over half of the District already, and was a prominent voice in the aftermath of the Sikh Temple Shooting (and a rare Republican member of the Mayors against Illegal Guns coalition), the race looked like it was Scaffidi's to lose. Then, the moderate Scaffidi abruptly dropped out for cryptic reasons, citing work to do as Mayor. So now, the field is wide open. Five Candidates submitted their signatures to be placed on the Republican Ballot in October. They are a diverse bunch, so here we go:
1. Ken Gehl (R-Oak Creek) Gehl is an Oak Creek Alderman and VP of Robert W. Baird, a Private Equity Firm. He has Mayor Scaffidi's endorsement, but does not hold Scaffidi's moderate views on guns: he stresses his support for Walker's reforms, and his support for Voucher schools and Gun Rights. He has the largest base to work from of the five candidates so Gehl's the closest thing to an "Establishment" candidate, but there really is no frontrunner. He previously lost an election to the Milwaukee County Board in 2012.
2. Jessie Rodriguez (R-Franklin) Rodriguez is probably the most interesting candidate, and would be the formidable in the general. If nominated, she will be the first Latina woman nominated by the GOP in Wisconsin (she was born in El Salvador). Rodriguez is the Outreach Director of a non-profit group called "Hispanics for School Choice." She also holds the endorsement of Congressman Sean Duffy's Wife, a fellow Latina. She would be deadly in the general, but Rodriguez seems to be going out of the way to portray herself as a non-partisan, consensus builder, so this won't help her in the primary.
3. Larry Gamble (R-Franklin) Gamble is the classic tea-party wing-nut. A veteran and president of the tea-party group "Grandsons of Liberty," he actually has run for the State Assembly previously, unsuccessfully primary-ing Rep. Jeff Stone in 2010 before redistricting. His main thing appears to be cutting property taxes for senior citizens so... yeah.
4. Chris Kujawa (R-South Milwaukee) Kujawa is your classic Republican-small-businessman-dipping-his-toe-into-politics candidate. He is the VP of KEI, and landscaping firm. He's going the economically-libertarian route, but we have yet to see how tea-party Kujawa goes.
5. Red Arnold (R-South Milwaukee) Arnold is a some dude.
Conclusion: Who will win this? It's very hard to say: Oak Creek takes up the bulk of the population, and Scaffidi is a very popular figure in South Milwaukee County, so my gut tells me it's Gehl that ends up being the Republican Nominee. Gamble is just legitimate enough where he could win the nomination, and the 21st would almost certainly go to the Dems. If Rodriguez wins, I think our chances get slimmer, but I don't see her winning the primary actively behaving as a Moderate in a GOP Primary.
The Democratic Candidate We are set to nominate one Elizabeth Coppola (D-South Milwaukee) to be our nominee. Coppola serves on the Milwaukee County Social Development Commission, the predominant anti-poverty organization in Milwaukee. Coppola is also an Emerge Graduate, so she also has some good political connections with the good guys--not a bad thing during the special election. We rarely put up much of a challenge in this District, but Coppola could very well swing this
Why we can win this As a shout-out to Johnny Longtorso, this election is taking place on November 19th. This is a typical 50-50 district that a moderate Republican should be able to waltz away with. However, the Oak Creek shooting is still very fresh on people's minds in this part of the state, and we have many GOP candidates more than willing to blab about Gun Rights. We have yet to see how good a campaigner Coppola is, but there is great potential for a perfect storm for the Democrats.
In the meantime, please feel free (if you are able) to monetarily contribute to Elizabeth Coppola's campaign. https://secure.actblue.com/...