You saw the title! We have 39 seats in the Wisconsin State Assembly and in order to take it back, we would need to pick up 11 Seats. Do I think that we'll pick up those seats? Of course not. That said, to be safe, I profiled the 11 most likely seats to flip in 2014! Walker has slipped, and he may well slip again, so it never hurts to be prepared!
Key for maps
Dark Red: 15 points or more Romney Red: 10-15 points Romney Light Red: 5-10 points Romney Purple: 0-5 points Obama or Romney Light Blue: 5-10 points Obama Blue: 10-15 points Obama Dark Blue: 15 or more points Obama
1: THE 51ST ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Location: Rural South Central Wisconsin Incumbent: OPEN PVI: D+8 Rating: Leans Democratic
Analysis: The 51st District hugs the Madison area in the west through Green, Lafayette, Iowa, and Sauk Counties. This is quintessential rural farm country - the largest municipality is Monroe, WI with a population of ~11K.
Southwestern Wisconsin politically reminds me of the South, but in reverse. The area is rapidly trending blue, with Tammy Baldwin and Barack Obama performing very solidly in 2012; however, the area is historically very Republican, and the GOP tends to still perform well on the local level. The 51st is a prime example of this. Obama won 59% here, and avowed Madison liberal Tammy Baldwin won here with 55%.
Republican Howard Marklein reclaimed this seat from the Democrats in the 2010 Wave and voted lockstep with the Scott Walker agenda despite the political nature of his seat. Despite this, he defeated Mineral Point School Board member Mo May- Grimm 53%-47%, running thirteen points ahead of Mitt Romney. Marklein is retiring to run for the 17th State Senate Seat being vacated by the notoriously moderate Republican Dale Schultz.
Without a Republican incumbent, I firmly believe that Democrats will retake the 51st in November. There is a competitive primary here on our side between Dick Cates, a known and politically connected farmer and Pat Bomhack, a former aide for former Governor Jim Doyle and former US Senator Russ Feingold, and Congressman Ron Kind. That said, Bomhack may opt to instead run against Marklein in the State Senate election where Democrats lack a strong candidate.
There is a very crowded field running in the GOP primary, which only helps us. However, one candidate could make this competitive which is why I hesitate to call this a likely Democratic gain. Todd Novak is the Mayor of Dodgeville, and happens to be gay and has a politically moderate reputation. Given the nature of this district, Novak could keep this red. That said, that will be a tough call for any Republican.
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2: THE 1ST ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Location: Rural Eastern Wisconsin, Door Peninsula Incumbent: OPEN PVI: R+2 Rating: Toss-up
Analysis: The 1st District is just east of Titletown along the Door Peninsula, in Door and Kewaunee counties. This is honestly some of the most beautiful stretch of land in Wisconsin. This is a big site for natural tourism, and the largest population center is the City of Sturgeon Bay, population ~9K.
The first district is incredibly swingy - Mitt Romney narrowly won this district, as did Tammy Baldwin; both with less than 50%.
Republican Garey Bies was first elected in 2002, and has since won re-election multiple times by very close margins. In 2008, he defeated Democrat Dick Skare 51%-49%, and four years later in 2012, he defeated Democratic challenger Patrick Veeser by the same margin: 51%-49%. Luckily, Bies is retiring to run for Secretary of State (for reasons past understanding), giving us a prime opportunity to win a prime swing district.
This is debatably the swingiest district in the state. Luckily, we seem to have avoided a primary. Joe Majeski is a recently retired school system principal with the backing of Patrick Veeser. He resides in the town of Sevastopol in Door County, and is very politically connected in the area.
There is a very crowded GOP Primary that only helps us. There is a five way primary. Brian Hackbarth is the Town Supervisor of Gibraltar in Door County. Terry McNulty is the Village President of Forestville and is a Southern Door County School Board Member. Jonathan Kruse is the order of a Door County Business, Door County Marine. Paul Fiet is a Dentist, and Joel Kitchens is the President of the Sturgeon Bay School Board. This has high potential to be a brawl, and there is no clear front- runner and a none of these people are some dudes. Time will tell...
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3: THE 88TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Location: Suburban Brown County (Green Bay) Incumbent: OPEN PVI: R+3 Rating: Toss-up
Analysis: The 88th District is immediately west of the 1st District, taking up the eastern section of Green Bay, WI, most of De Pere, WI and some conservative suburbs and countryside. The nature of this district is distinctly suburban.
This district is also distinctly swingy, though it is a tad more Red on the federal level. Mitt Romney and Tommy Thompson both won the 88th with about 50%. That said, Democrats do have slightly better luck downballot throughout the Fox Valley, so be prepared for a hotly contested race.
Republican John Klenke beat Democratic Assemblyman Jim Soletski in the 2010 Wave Election by just 267 votes. Democrats did not target this race in 2012 but despite that, teacher and Democratic nominee Ward Bacon still managed to hold Klenke to a small 52%-48% win. Suprisingly, Klenke is hanging up after just two terms, opening up a prime opportunity for the Democrats.
The race for this seat formed remarkably quickly, and the Democrats have rallied around a strong candidate - Dan Robinson. Robinson is an elected official on the Brown County Board from De Pere (the more conservative city in the 88th), and is a College Administrator at St. Norberts.
Similarly, the GOP very quickly rallied around one candidate - John Macco. Macco runs a major financial consultancy business in Brown County, and ran for State Senate last year against incumbent Democrat Dave Hansen, and ran at least one point behind Mitt Romney. There's a potential perfect storm brewing here if Macco cannot perform better in November.
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4: THE 72ND ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Location: Central Wisconsin (Wisconsin Rapids) Incumbent: Scott Krug (elected 2010) PVI: R+3 Rating: Toss-up
Analysis: The 72nd District is located smack-dab in the middle of Wisconsin to the immediate west of Stevens Point, WI. The district is rural, although Wisconsin Rapids is a legitimate population center of ~18K.
This is one of only two districts (the other one is the 1st district) where Tammy Baldwin won, while Mitt Romney defeated Obama here. Suffice to say, this district is very swingy.
Republican Scott Krug very narrowly defeated long-term incumbent Democrat Marlin Schneider (Snarlin' Marlin, as he's known up in Rapids) in the 2010 Wave elections. Two years later in 2012, Krug won re-election by just 109 votes against Wisconsin Rapids firefighter Justin Pluess in a race that nearly went to recount. To make matters worse for Rep. Krug going into 2014, he made headlines for reneging on a campaign promise in 2010 that he would not take any taxpayer per diem money. He later turned out to be one of the top-spenders of per diems and justified it with the worst possible response: "That was a different campaign." Democrats have obviously taken pains to use this to hammer Krug.
The Dems have rallied around a candidate here - attorney Dana Duncan. He is the President of the Port Edwards School Board, a moderately conservative community adjacent to Wisconsin Rapids. There likely won't be a primary on our side, so Krug is very likely the most endangered GOP incumbent in the state.
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5: THE 96TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Location: Rural Southwestern Wisconsin Incumbent: Lee Nerison (elected 2004) PVI: D+5 Rating: Leans Republican
Analysis: The 96th District takes us back to southwestern Wisconsin, which like the 51st is quintessential farm country. The largest population center here is Prairie du Chien, which has a population of ~6K, just to give you an impression of the sort of district we are dealing with here.
The 96th is also much like the 51st district in its politically anachronistic nature. President Obama solidly won the 26th with 56%, and Tammy Baldwin received 54% of the vote. On paper, this district should go Blue no problem.
GOP Representative Lee Nerison was elected to the 96th district back in 2004 and has fended off tough races before. War Veteran Tim Johnson ran against Nerison in 2012, and Nerison managed not just to beat Johnson, but to trounce him 60%-40%. In numerical terms, Nerison ran sixteen points ahead of Mitt Romney. Nerison is an adept politician who seems to understand campaigning in his district, and has effectively cultivated a reputation as a moderate. He is only one of three Republicans left in the State Assembly that voted against Act 10, the controversial budget repair bill that spurred the infamous 2011 Capital Protests.
This year, however, Nerison faces by far his strongest Democratic challenger to date. Pete Flesch is the Crawford County Board Chair and a well-known farmer who has lived in southwestern Wisconsin for his entire life. Flesch is waging a very active campaign and is currently tied with Rep. Nerison in fundraising.
Due to Nerison's historical record of strength and prevailing moderate reputation, I do not feel comfortable calling this race a toss-up. That being said, if momentum swings to the Democrats at any point this year, expect Pete Flesch to be an immediate beneficiary.
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6: THE 42ND ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Location: Rural South Central Wisconsin, North of Madison Incumbent: Keith Ripp (elected 2008) PVI: EVEN Rating: Leans Republican
Analysis: The 42nd District lies about a half-hour north of Madison, WI, aka The Shire. This is also very rural country, stretching from Northern Dane County, through most of Columbia County, and stretching into conservative Dodge County. The largest Population center here is quite small: Lodi, WI, with a roaring population of 3K. Also proud home of Susie the Duck.
Obama won this district with 51% (see very tight PVI) and Tommy Thompson also won it narrowly. Columbia County and the surrounded area, however, has been trending blue in a very dramatic way. Columbia County, for example, was one of just three counties to go from Red to Blue during the Recall Election (meaning Columbia County went for Scott Walker in 2010, but went for Tom Barrett in 2012).
The incumbent here, however, is a tough cookie. Keith Ripp was narrowly elected in 2008 over Columbia County Board Member and RN Trish O'Neill. He defeated O'Neill in 2010 by a larger 57%-43% in a rematch. Last year, he defeated Democrat Paula Cooper in an untargeted race by 57%-47%.
Ripp is not a particularly compelling or charismatic figure, but he is ridiculously well- connected for a state legislator. The Ripp name is HUGE in Columbia County and northern Dane County, synonymous with Big Agriculture with multiple parks and establishments named "Ripp" in the area. He managed to raise 136K in his 2008 election, which is considered extremely good for State Senate Races.
But that was 2008, and the political nature of Ripp's district is rapidly changing underneath his seat. Democrats have been quick to support and campaign for George Ferriter, Doylestown Village President and Engineer. Amazingly, Ferriter has been able to mostly keep up with Ripp in terms of fundraising which gives me hope that the 42nd district my be ready for a change.
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7: THE 50TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Location: Rural Southwestern Wisconsin Incumbent: Edward Brooks (elected 2008) PVI: D+3 Rating: Likely Republican
Analysis: The 50th District is also in southwestern Wisconsin, and is of a similar nature to the districts I already discussed. It's extremely rural, and the largest population center is in the city of Richland Center, population ~5K.
President Obama also won this district by 54% and Tammy Baldwin won it by 52%, an observation that continually puts the 50th on Democratic target lists in November. That said, the district has been stubbornly GOP on the local level.
Assemblyman Edward Brooks is an octogenarian Republican first elected in 2008. He fought off Town of Fountain Clerk Sarah Ann Shanahan in the 2010 Wave Election and narrowly defeated Shanahan in a 2012 rematch 50%-47%. He has something of a nice-old-man reputation over in Richland Center, but he recently had some negative headlines in which he skipped votes on a property tax cut to attend one of his fundraisers.
Brooks has an exceptionally intriguing Democratic opponent this year. Chris Miller is a recently retired Lutheran preacher from Loganville, WI. He's effectively striking bipartisan chords in the vein of Dale Schultz. I believe that Pastor Miller has great potential to defeat Rep. Brooks. However, he has only very recently entered the race and Brooks is sitting on a 50K War Chest, so until the money starts coming in, I rate this as Likely Republican to be cautious.
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8: THE 37TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Location: Rural East Central Wisconsin (Watertown) Incumbent: John Jagler (elected 2012) PVI: R+6 Rating: Likely Republican
Analysis: The 37th District is located in East Central Wisconsin, nestled in Dodge, Jefferson, Dane and Columbia Counties. The major communities in the 37th are the Democratic cities of DeForest and Columbus, and the largest city - the Republican Watertown, population ~25K.
This is a very small-c conservative part of the state, and it does usually vote for the GOP. Mitt Romney won the 37th with 53%, as did Tommy Thompson. That said, Jefferson County has had a much more active Democratic base since the Recall, as has northern Dane County and Columbus.
John Jagler was a Radio Host before he was elected in the 2012 elections after the departure of Jeff Fitzgerald (the younger). He is mostly a blank slate for now, and is still green enough as a Representative where he is still vulnerable. He defeated Columbus School Board President Mary Arnold 54%-46% in 2012.
Mary Arnold is setting up for a rematch, and really seems committed to taking this reddish seat for Team Blue. Mary Arnold is a graduate and active member of Emerge Wisconsin, and therefore has political chops and connections. It also bears mentioning that she outperformed both President Obama and Senator Baldwin by about 1.5-2 points, which would suggest that Arnold already has crossover appeal. The PVI of the district bars my full-blown optimism, but Arnold has a real chance to become a Dem holding the reddest seats for the Democrats in 2015.
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9: THE 68TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Location: Rural Northeastern Wisconsin and Suburban Eau Claire (Altoona) Incumbent: Kathy Bernier (elected 2010) PVI: EVEN Rating: Likely Republican
Analysis: The 68th District to the immediate east of Eau Claire, a small college town in the northwestern section of the state. This area is suburban-to-rural, with Altoona being the largest population center, ~7K.
This district - and the Eau Claire area in general - is very swingy both in federal and local elections. Obama won the district with 51% and Tammy Baldwin also won the 68th with 50%. This district is very capable of electing Democrats on all levels of government.
Representative Kathy Bernier was narrowly elected in the 2010 Wave Election, defeating incumbent Democratic Assemblywoman Kristen Dexter by a 50%-50% margin. In 2012, Bernier faced a tough election against a candidate who wasn't considered to be highly targeted - Democratic Thorp School Board Member Judy Smriga. Bernier held Smriga back to a 52%-48% margin of victory.
We have one declared candidate thus far, a local farmer and Iraq War Vet Jeff Peck. Peck's profile appears to be rather low, which is why I rate this as a Likely GOP seat for 2014. This seat, however, has high potential to change. This is obviously a swing seat that is not at all allergic to Democrats, the Democratic Candidate has an intriguing profile, and so far Peck seems to be keeping the tone of his race exceptionally local, a tactic that works in northern Wisconsin. If this race ramps up, expect it to move to lean R if nothing further!
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I include the races below as Safe Republican only because there are no Democrats running for these seats yet. However, once they do, expect these seats to see competitive elections!
10: THE 49TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Location: Rural Southwestern Wisconsin Incumbent: Travis Tranel (elected 2010) PVI: D+5 Rating: Safe Republican/Race to Watch
I'll keep these profiles short and sweet.
The 49th District is located in the Southwestern corner of the State. It is similar to the other Southwestern district I already discussed in agriculture and politics. The largest population center here is the City of Platteville, population 11K, with an inflated population due to a local UW-Madison four-year campus. Obama was elected here with a 56% margin, and Tammy Baldwin with a 51% margin.
Travis Tranel was first elected in the Republican Wave of 2010, after handily defeating Democratic Assemblyman Phil Garthwaite. Tranel handily garnered an independent reputation for himself, voting with Rep. Nerison and the Democrats against the infamous Act 10 bill. This earned him a conservative primary challenge in 2012, but it probably ultimately help him stave off Union President Carol Beals, 54%-46%. Given Obama's 56% margin here, this district will see competitive elections for a long time with Tranel in office, but he unfortunately has staying power.
11: THE 67TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Location: Rural Northeastern Wisconsin (Chippewa Falls) Incumbent: Tom Larson (elected 2010) PVI: R+4 Rating: Safe Republican/Race to Watch
The 67th district is very similar to the 68th district that I previously discussed, although it is just a tad more Red. It lies directly to the north of Eau Claire, WI of a similar suburban-rural nature. The largest population center here is the city of Chippewa Falls, population ~14K. Romney won the district with 51%, Tommy Thompson with 49%.
Assemblyman Tom Larson was elected to this district in the 2010 Wave Election. He was challenged by a local nurse Deb Bieging in 2012, and despite not being targeted she managed to hold Representative Larson to a 53%-47% margin. There is a healthy Democratic bench here, so if the party targets this district in November, Larson could be in for a serious fight.