2014 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Benchmarks

One week till show time, everyone!

For anyone planning on closely watching the Wisconsin Governor's Race next Tuesday, hopefully this tool will help you keep track of Mary Burke's performance and determine whether or not we're winning or losing.

For non-DKE'ers: "benchmarks" are estimates of what percentage of the vote Mary Burke needs in each of Wisconsin's 72 counties to win.

For DKE'ers & Non-DKE'ers, where these numbers come from: For each county, I averaged vote totals in the 2012 Senate Election (between Tammy Baldwin and Tommy Thompson) and the 2012 Recall Election (Scott Walker and Tom Barrett round two), and then adding just enough of the vote to the Dem totals to results in the barest Democratic victory possible (results in about a 49.4% victory for Mary Burke).

Click below the fold for full, detailed county numbers and further analysis!

KeyDark Red = Walker 60%+ Red = Walker 50%-59.9% Pink = Walker 49.9%- Teal = Burke 49.9%- Blue = Burke 50%-59.9% Dark Blue = Burke 60%+

Full County Numbers here: https://docs.google.com/...

SouthWest Wisconsin

County       Mary Burke’s %        Scott Walker’s % Adams        49.1%                        48.9% Columbia        51.9%                        46.4% Crawford        53.0%                        45.2% Dane               69.3%                        29.5% Grant           49.6%                       48.4% Green        52.8%                        45.6% Green Lake   34.9%                        63.2% Iowa               57.1%                        41.2% Juneau       45.7%                        52.3% La Crosse       53.8%                        44.1% Lafayette       48.2%                        50.3% Marquette       43.9%                        54.1% Monroe       43.0%                        54.7% Richland       50.1%                        48.6%Sauk               51.9%                        46.4% Vernon       51.0%                        46.9%

Southwest Wisconsin is notorious for being an area with some of the most drastic electoral swings in the midwest (excluding Dane County, which is massively liberal due to the Madison metro area). This district is home to the famously moderate and popular Republican Senator Dale Schultz. It gave convincing margins to both Barack Obama and Scott Walker, an simultaneously elected Tammy Baldwin and many Republican state legislators, both by convincing margins.

Mary Burke will need to win La Crosse, Richland, Sauk, Vernon, Crawford, Columbia, Grant, Green and Adams Counties - all counties that Walker carried at least once - by varying margins to win on Tuesday. Besides the Governor's race, there are LOTS of competitive state legislature races to watch closely - there's the competitive race to succeed Dale Schultz between Republican Howard Marklein and Democrat Pat Bomhack, as well spirited races to unseat Republican Assemblymen Ed Brooks, Lee Nerison and Keith Ripp - and to fill Howard Marklein's seat. The stakes are particularly high in this part of the state - regardless of statewide results though, expect exciting results for Democrats.

Southeastern Wisconsin

More than anywhere else, Racine County will be the bellwether county for the race. It is a heavily polarized county between a solidly blue city with a significant minority population in Racine proper in the east and an extremely conservative set of rural areas/exburbs in the west with a few swing-ish suburbs in the middle. Mary Burke does not need to hit 50% here, but she does need a plurality. The county overall is headed leftward, so this is definitely possible. If you're looking for one county to watch, it's here.

Other Areas

Specific numbers can be found in the google doc, but be sure to watch the Eau Claire metro region along the Minnesota border. In certain rural counties (note Trempealeau), Walker should be getting nothing more than bare-bones majorities. Along the conservative border itself (Harsdorf-land) Walker will win, but we cannot let him get in the high 50s.

Hope this tool is helpful, and I hope you'll all join me on Election Day!