Back by popular demand, here is my analysis on the top three most likely State Senate Seats to flip in November! Hope you'll all enjoy!
Democrats currently hold 15 seats in the 33-seat Senate Chamber. Due to redistricting, we will have to give up one seat made ultra-red by redistrict. This means we'll effectively need to flip three seats to regain the Senate Majority.
Map Key: Dark Red = 15+ points Romney Red = 10-15 points Romney Light Red = 5-10 Points Romney Purple = 0-5 Points Obama or Romney Light Blue = 5-10 Points Obama Blue = 10-15 Points Obama Dark Blue = 15+ Points Obama
1. The 19th Senate District
Location: The Fox Valley - Cities of Appleton and Menasha Incumbent: OPEN PVI: R+2 (Obama Majority) Rating: Toss-up
The 19th is swingy to the point of being somewhat hilarious. Obama won the 19th District by 12 votes - not 1,200 votes, not 120 votes, but 12 Votes. Meanwhile, Tommy Thompson beat Tammy Baldwin 49%-47% here. The district is conservative but it is not adverse to electing Democrats locally (Both Winnebago and Outagamie counties, which more often than not go red during state elections, have un-apologetically Democratic County Executives). The area is socially conservative but open to "liberal" economic policies, so Blue Collar Dems definitely have a place here.
First of all, I must give a shout-out to Appleton for electing Gypsy Vered Meltzer, the first openly Transgendered person to hold elected office in Wisconsin! But to the race at hand...
Our incumbent here is a GOP Senator by the name of Mike Ellis. Ellis was elected all the back in 1982, and was in the State Legislature since 1971. The man is an institution up in Neenah (his hometown), and has in the past garnered an independent reputation for supporting healthcare and public education in the Fox Valley. You may remember Mike Ellis from his gavel-busting tirade in which he pushed that awful abortion bill through the state senate. A few weeks ago, he rather abruptly retired after being caught on tape discussing illegally using Dark Money to fund his campaign.
As of Tuesday, Republicans were quick to rally around Roger Roth, a former State Representative out of suburban Appleton from 2007 to 2011. Roth has an admittedly attractive profile. He's young (age 36), and is an Iraq War Veteran in the Air National Guard. If his name sounds somewhat familiar, he ran for Congress in 2010 in Wisconsin's 8th District, but was defeated by current Congressman Reid Ribble. All other major GOP figures in the 19th District have already declined and Roth has the endorsement of Governor Walker and Scott Fitzgerald, so the primary is just a coronation.
Luckily, we have a GREAT Candidate in Representative Penny Bernard Schaber (D-Appleton). Schaber was a nurse before her election to the State Assembly. She has experiencing running in difficult campaigns, as she represented a swingier district prior to redistricting. She received early support from Wisconsin's Planned Parenthood and women's groups when she was planning on running against Ellis, so she's in a great place with money, at just below 100K as of the last campaign finance deadline.
Needless to say, conservative groups are going to dump loads of money in keeping this seat red. That said, Penny Bernard Schaber is the exact sort of Democrat that performs well in the swingy Fox Valley. If she can keep the same intensity and enthusiasm she had pursuing Ellis, and redirect it toward Roth, Democrats will hold the 19th for the first time in decades.
Click here to donate to Penny Bernard Schaber via ActBlue!
2. The 17th Senate District
Location: Southwestern Wisconsin Incumbent: OPEN PVI: D+6 Rating: Toss-up
Federally, the 17th District leans Democratic. President Obama received 57%, and that Madison liberal Senator Baldwin received 54% down here. However, southwest Wisconsin has something of a reverse-Deep South complex: the region is rapidly trending blue, but is ancestrally Republican, and so the GOP performs much better locally.
The current Senator here is Dale Schultz, one of the last few genuinely moderate elected Republicans left in Wisconsin. Schultz made himself nationally famous for being the sole GOP vote against the 2011 "Budget Repair Bill," and for voting against many of the Walker Administration's most extreme proposals. This earned Schultz a daunting primary challenge from State Representative Howard Marklein, a conservative Republican elected in the 2010 wave. Schultz recently announced his retirement, lambasting the GOP Caucus on his way out.
Howard Marklein wasted no time in fundraising to take on Senator Schultz. Now he has at least 145K in his campaign warchest as of March, which unfortunately makes him the frontrunner despite the 17th District's blue-ish nature. Although this is a D+6 district, this might be Marklein's race to lose. He currently represents a district just northwest of Madison that gave 59% of the vote to Obama in 2012: during that same year, he defeated his democratic opponent with 52%. Despite that Marklein's voting pattern is identical to conservative Assembly-people in Waukesha County, he absolutely has the chops to compete in blue territory.
Many in the Wisconsin polito-sphere viewed this seat as a squandered opportunity until Wednesday. The new instant-frontrunner, Pat Bomhack, was an aide for Congressman Ron Kind, Senator Russ Feingold, and Governor Jim Doyle. He grew up in the Dodgeville area, and moved back to the 17th District after college at Stanford. He ran for state assembly last year as an underdog in the primary (ironically, to face off with Howard Marklein) and very nearly won. He was gunning for the assembly a second time until Democratic officials and SD-17 convinced him to upgrade to the Senate Race due to concerns of confronting Howard Marklein's ~145K war chest. Bomhack faces former Director of the UW-Madison Transportation Center Ernie Wittwer in the Democratic Primary
This area is rapidly turning blue, but Marklein is going to be a formidable candidate. Nevertheless, Marklein is a Walker Conservative, not a Moderate Dale Schultz. His politics simply do not fit the area. For this reason only, this race currently Toss- up. assuming Bomhack is our candidate, or if Wittwer's fundraising picks up in a significant way.
Click here to donate to Pat Bomhack via ActBlue
Click here to donate to Ernie Wittwer via ActBlue!
3. The 9th Senate District
Location: East Wisconsin along Lake Michigan - Sheboygan, WI Incumbent: OPEN PVI: R+6 Rating: Leans Republican
This part of the wider Fox River Valley is very culturally Conservative. Both Mitt Romney and Tommy Thompson both won the 19th District by daunting margins and over the long run, Sheboygan and Manitowoc Counties are unfortunately trending away from the Democrats. Nevertheless, Democrats do perform remarkably better on the local level: the DAs of both counties and other countywide officials are Democrats, and Democrats at the state legislative levels tend to outperform statewide Dems.
Tom Petri's retirement caused a VERY significant political shake-up in Sheboyga-towoc. Senator Joe Leibham is personably very popular in Sheboygan, but his retirement to run for Congress creates a huge opportunity for Team Blue -- and it could not have occurred at a better time. Two of the three GOP assemblymen, Steve Kestell and Mike Endsley, had already retired - Kestell due to old age presumably, and Endsley to run to the private sector. Paul Tittl of Manitowoc definitively will not run.
That leaves only one GOP candidate - Devin LaMahieu, chair of the Sheboygan County Board (and son of State Rep. Dan LeMahieu): certainly a legit candidate, but not first tier for a State Senate Race, due to a lack of name recognition. He previously primaried State Rep. Endsley from the right in 2012, and due to radical redistricting in the area, lost with a respectable 40%.
We also landed a great candidate in Martha Laning of Sheboygan. Laning is a successful entrepreneur, which is a quality that plays particularly well to swing voters in this part of Badgerland. She is known in Sheboygan as a professional fundraiser, most notably for the Plymouth Multigenerational Facility, raising nearly $5 Million dollars for the project and many other projects. She is potentially the prime candidate to win the 9th district - successful businesswoman, no political experience, Central-Wisconsin roots, and genuine belief in Democratic ideals.
This district may swing between Republicans Democrats in certain respects, but it gave Governor Walker over 60% in the recall election. Granted the Recall was an exceptional circumstance, but the Governor is popular here and will be on top of the ballot in November. For this reason, the race leans GOP. However, Laning had a strong fundraising period, and LeMahieu had a virtually non-existant fundraising haul. Expect something of a Dem resurgence here in November...
Click here to donate to Martha Laning via ActBlue!