Based on good reception from part 1 of my 3-pt. series on our prospects in 2014 Wisconsin State Assembly elections, here is part 2, back by popular demand! Enjoy!
AD-34: Rob Swearingen (R) 2012 PVI: R+7 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 34th District is in the northeastern corner of the state, just along the border of Michigan's Upper Peninsula. It contains Florence, most of Oneida and Vilas, and northern Forest counties. This extremely rural and wooded, with the communities of note being Rhinelander and Eagle River. Rob Swearingen was the owner and manager of the Al-Gen restaurant in Rhinelander and a prominent member of the Wisconsin Tavern League before he was elected to the State Assembly last November. He serves as the Vice-Chair of the State Affairs Committee.
He defeated his Democratic opponent, Merlin Van Buren (pretty cool name), by a good 21 points, albeit with 7% being pulled away by Independent Candidates. Van Buren falls in the perennial candidate category, so a Dem could keep this race close someday. However, these counties are trending red, so Swearingen is safe.
AD-35: Mary Czaja (R) 2012 PVI: R+5 My Rating: Leans/Likely Republican Commentary: The 35th District is centered in Lincoln County, in north central Wisconsin--it also contains nearly all of Langlade County, and parts of Marathon, Shawano, and Oneida County. This is a similarly wooded county to the 34th, where the only communities of note are Tomahawk, Merrill, and Antigo. Mary Czaja was the owner of the CIS Insurance Group in Tomahawk prior to her election to the State Assembly last November.
Lincoln county does go narrowly Dem in some statewide elections, but it's a conservative area and sill likely only get friendlier to the GOP throughout time. However, Czaja got an underwhelming 53% of the vote in an 11 point victory in 2012 against Democrat Kevin Koth, a millworker and Bradley Town Chairman, and an Independent Candidate. If 2014 is distinctly a Democratic year, a Dem candidate from Merrill or Tomahawk could make give Czaja a tight election.
AD-36: Jeffrey Mursau (R) 2012 PVI: R+5 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 36th District is also nestled on the Michigan Border and Lake Michigan just north of Green Bay, being rural and forested and comprised of the Menominee Reservation and parts of Oconto, Shawano, Marinette, Forest, and Langlade Counties. The largest city here is Oconto Falls, is just shy of 3,000, so this is a very expansive district. Jeffrey Mursau was the Village President of Crivitz, WI before being elected to the State Assembly in 2004. He chairs the powerful Environment and Forestry Committee in the State Assembly.
Rep. Mursau won by 18 points in 2012, a healthy margin to be sure. He's one of the top Republicans in the State on Environmental issues, so it would be great to defeat him in 2014, but I can almost guarantee that won't happen given how embedded he is in the district.
AD-37: John Jagler (R) 2012 PVI: R+6 My Rating: Likely Republican Commentary: The 37th District is one of the more obviously gerrymandered districts, stretching in a long line from the Madison suburb of DeForest, to the city of Columbus, and into conservative Dodge County into the City of Watertown and all the rural agricultural regions in between. John Jagler was a radio broadcaster and the communications director for Ex-Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald before getting elected last November. Jagler is the Vice-chair of the Assembly Education Committee (Voucher time!)
Despite the discouraging PVI, we got a top-tier challenger in Mary Arnold in 2012--Emerge participant and Columbus School Board member. She actually kept Jagler at only a 55%-45% victory. Arnold was probably the best get in this district, so I have a hard time seeing Dems do better than 45% in a Dodge County-based district: however, in a Blue year, Arnold or a DeForest/Columbus Dem has a good shot here.
AD-38: Joel Kleefisch (R) 2012 PVI: R+10 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: Another cringe-worthy, über-gerrymandered district stretching from rural Eastern Dane County, through central Jefferson County, and into the Heart of Darkness (AKA, Waukesha County). Oconomowoc, a very Republican City, is the largest community here, but it also contains the swingy cities of Lake Mills and Johnson creek, along with Democratic communities of Deerfield and Cambridge. The Assemblyman here is none other than Joel Kleefisch--the husband of our Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. He was first elected to the Assembly in 2004, and prior to that he was a news anchor. Kleefisch chairs the Criminal Justice Committee, and Vice-Chairs the Natural Resources and Sporting Heritage Committee.
Not much to say about our prospects here--it's based in Oconomowoc, Kleefisch won by 20 points last year, and Waukesha County is, after all, Waukesha County. Safe R, folks.
AD-39: Mark Born (R) 2012 PVI: R+10 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 39th District is nestled in rural and extremely Republican Dodge County. Most major cities, with the exception of Beaver Dam, are extremely Republican--Horicon, Mayville, and Juneau (home to Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald). Mark Born was a member of the Dodge County Sheriff's Department, and a member of the Beaver Dam City Council prior to his election to the Assembly last November. He is the Vice-Chair of the State and Local Finance Committee.
Prospects here are exceptionally dim. Born defeated his opponent by 20 points in 2012. A well-funded, Beaver Dam native would have an uphill climb in even a Dem year. Born is here to stay.
AD-40: Kevin Petersen (R) 2012 PVI: R+7 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 40th District starts to edge up into the more-industrial/rural Fox River Valley, carrying the bulk of Waupaca County and the easter half of Waushara County. The moderate-conservative cities of Waupaca and New London are the major communities of the district. Kevin David Petersen was in the U.S. Navy Reserve and a Dayton Town Supervisor before getting elected to the State Assembly in 2006. Petersen chairs the Insurance Committee, and is Vice-Chair on the Information Policy and Technology Committee.
Petersen was elected in a Democratic wave year, and was re-elected without opposition last November. In other words, Petersen will be here for as long as he wants. He will likely be succeeded by a Republican as well, given the Conservative tilt of the Fox River Valley. It is Republican for statewide elections, but even more conservative for local races.
AD-41: Joan Ballweg (R) 2012 PVI: R+3 My Rating: Leans Republican Commentary: The 41st is yet another gerrymandered district stretching across the center of the state. The District stretches from Southern Adams County, through the majority of Marquette and Green Lake Counties, and jutting into Fond du Lac County. The major communities of note here are the Wisconsin Dells (the home to many tourist attractions and waterparks), Montello, Adams-Friendship, Green Lake, and most notably, Ripon--the founding place of the Republican Party. Joan Ballweg was first elected to the Assembly in 2004, succeeding Luther Olsen who was elected to the State Senate. Prior to the Legislature, Ballweg was the Mayor of Markesan, WI and a small business owner. She is one of the co-chairs of the Joint Legislative Council and is the Majority Caucus Chairwoman, so she's a particularly power Republican.
Romney and Thompson barely managed to pass the 50% threshold in the 41st; nevertheless, there is a local political tradition in these counties that heavily favors Republicans at the state and local levels. Unfortunately, this was another race that was neglected/overlooked last year that could have been won. We had another Emerge Candidate run here, a Green Lake County Employee named Melissa Sorenson who by all accounts was a great candidate who gave Ballweg a run for her money. Unfortunately, Ballweg managed to win a 58-42% victory. This district could be made a lot more competitive and is very winnable; however, Ballweg is a very powerful legislator so we would need to invest heavily in this race.
AD-42: Keith Ripp (R) 2012 PVI: R+1 (Obama 50%, Romney 49%) My Rating: Leans Republican Commentary: The 42nd Distirct contains virtually all of Columbia County (35 minutes north of Madison, as well as parts of Dane, Dodge, Marquette, Green Lake, and Fond du Lac Counties. This is a particularly agrarian Assembly District, and the communities of note here are Lodi and Fox Lake. Keith Ripp ran a prominent farming business in the Columbia county area and was a Dane Town Supervisor and fmr. President of the Wisconsin Corn Growers Association prior to being very narrowly elected to the assembly in 2008. Ripp is, for some reason, the Chair of the Transportation Committee.
Ripp was elected in a very narrow election in 2008 over Columbia County Board member Trish O'Neil. He defeated O'Neil again in 2010, and defeated iron worker and activist Paula Cooper by about 14 points. Obama won this district narrowly in 2012, while Tommy Thompson narrowly won it simultaneously. The point is, this is a very winnable district with a decent bench, but Ripp is a big name in this area, which tends to scare off major challengers. To tick off a few potential candidates, Trish O'Neill could always try again or perhaps the man she narrowly beat in the 2008 primary, Lodi Mayor Paul Fisk. Either way, Columbia County was one of two counties to go from Walker-to-Barrett in the Recall, so the trend lines would suggest that this area is becoming extremely friendly to Democrats. We can win this one in 2014.
AD-43: Andy Jorgensen (D) 2012 PVI: D+6 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: The 43rd District is nestled in the intersection of Dane, Rock and Jefferson counties southwest of Madison. The major communities here are the college city of Whitewater, and the small cities of Milton and Edgerton. Besides that, it's a very agrarian district. Andy Jorgensen worked in the Assembly line for General Moters in Janesville and was a UAW shop steward prior to his election to the State Assembly in 2006. He is the Caucus Chair of the Assembly Democrats.
Andy Jorgensen was initially elected in a historically Republican part of Wisconsin, and it looked like he had a race on his hands as a result of redistricting in 2012. Jorgensen and Republican Representative Evan Wynn faced an incumbent-on-incumbent election, but Jorgensen walloped Wynn 58%-42%. Considering such a strong performance against an incumbent Republican, Jorgensen is probably safe for this seat. Evan Wynn has filed for a rematch in 2014 with the GAB.
AD-44: Debra Kolste (D) 2012 PVI: D+11 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: The 44th district is virtually all of the City of Janesville, a typical rust-belt city southwest of Madison, WI that is down on its luck do to the shutting down of automobile plants. The city is also the hometown of two infamous and distinctly different Wisconsin Politicians--Paul Ryan, and Russ Feingold. Debra Kolste served on the Janesville School Board, and was a farmer and medical technician prior to her election to the State Assembly.
Kolste narrowly won a competitive Democratic primary in 2012 to face off Republican Assembly Joe Knilans, who thought he could win in an urban, blue-collar, union-heavy district. Long story short, Kolste defeated Knilans by 24 points, 62%-38%. Debra Kolste will hold this seat for as long as she wants it.
AD-45: Janis Ringhand (D) 2012 PVI: D+12 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: This district is directly south of Madison, WI, taking up rural land in western Rock, and eastern Green counties. The major communities here are the College town, and Illinois border city of Beloit, and the smaller cities of Brodhead and Evansville. Janis Ringhand was first elected to the Assembly in 2010, and was the Mayor Evansville prior to that. She is the Secretary for the Minority Caucus.
This district is pretty rural, and recently used to support Republicans, but it recently made the switch to the good side, as is demonstrated by Ringhand's 28 point victory in 2012. The only political action here in the future will probably be in a primary after Ringhand's time in the Assembly is over.
AD-46: Gary Hebl (D) 2012 PVI: D+12 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: the 46th District takes up most of eastern Dane County. The primary communities of note here are the cities of Sun Prairie (a suburban city to the northeast of Madison), and Stoughton, WI, a culturally Norwegian, blue-collar city to Madison's South. Sun Prairie is a politically peculiar place, as it votes heavily for Democrats for state and federal office, but the local politics remain quite divisive (For example, Sun Prairie Mayor John Murray was a Paul Ryan staffer). Gary Hebl was, and is, a prominent Sun Prairie Attorney prior to his election to the Assembly in 2004, when he succeeded his brother Tom Hebl, another Sun Prairie Attorney.
Due to the nature of the district, Republicans keep searching for Fool's Gold in trying to win this assembly seat. I hope they keep trying, 'cause it ain't happening. Hebl won by 30 points last year over Republican Trish Schaefer. Since there is a GOP bench here, we should always keep an eye out when Hebl retires, but Rep. Hebl at least is safe.
AD-47: Robb Kahl (D) 2012 PVI: D+19 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: The 47th consists of a loop of the southern Madison suburbs, which include the communities of Fitchburg, Monona, McFarland, McFarland, and parts of Madison. It is a pretty diverse district for Madison, as there are both the affluent suburbs in Fitchburg, and some majority-minority wards in Madison that, sadly, suffer from blight. Robb Kahl was (and is) the owner of a Construction Group and was a former Mayor of Monona prior to his election to the Assembly in 2012.
Once we get into Madison, there is no chance for a Republican to win here. By some accounts Kahl has some prickly relations with the Left, but he is currently towing the party line in the Assembly. Safe Dem. Seat.
AD-48: Melissa Sargent (D) 2012 PVI: D+25 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: The 48th District is essentially Madison's North and East sides (and the Village of Maple Bluff, where Bradley Whitford is from! Yay!). This part of Madison is primarily residential in nature, votes essentially the same as the rest of Madison. I like to refer to it as the "retired/blue collar" part of town, but I digress. Melissa Sargent was a member of the Dane County Board of Supervisors and owner of printing business before getting elected to the Assembly in 2012. Her Husband, Justin Sargent, is Senate Minority Leader Chris Larson's Chief of Staff.
Sargent won in November with over 80% of the vote with only Libertarian opposition. Gotta love Madison.
AD-49: Travis Tranel (R) 2012 PVI: D+3 My Rating: Toss-up Commentary: The 49th District is nestled in the far southwest of the state along the Mississippi River, composed of Grant county and parts of Lafayette and Richland Counties. The small University city of Platteville is the largest community here, so it's vastly agricultural. Travis Tranel was a private dairy farmer before he defeated Incumbent Assemblyman Phil Garthwaite in 2010 57%-43%. He is the chair of the State and Federal Relations Committee.
Districts 49, 50, and 51 are a peculiar and frustrating part of our strategy. All three make up Senator Dale Schultz's district (for those who forget, he's the Republican who constantly votes against the Walker agenda). Southwest Wisconsin is trending bluer and bluer and the federal level, but remains stubbornly Republican at the State level. Therefore, we do not have an obviously deep bench of candidates. These are VERY winnable districts, but no one can take these for granted. These three Republicans won here in the first place, remember.
Tranel defeated Carol Beals, the President of AFSCME at the University of Wisconsin-Platteville, by 54%-46% in 2012. I sense that Beals had some bad luck, as she ran against the hugely popular Dale Schultz in 2010 previously. There are other Dems in Platteville and on the Grant County Board (and elsewhere) that we could take the plunge against Tranel. Remember, Tammy Baldwin won here, so being too liberal is NOT the problem.
AD-50: Edward Brooks (R) 2012 PVI: EVEN My Rating: Toss-up Commentary: District 50 is roughly west/northwest of Dane County, being comprised of Juneau County, and parts of Sauk, Richland, and Monroe Counties. The district is pretty similar to the 49th politically, though it's a tad more Republican--then again Elroy, the home of Tommy Thompson, is here, so that may have skewed results toward the GOP. The only communities of note here are Reedsburg, Richland Center, Mauston and a whole lot of farmland. Edward Brooks served on the Sauk County Board before he was elected to the Assembly in 2008. He is the chair of the Committee on Urban and Local Affiars, and the vice-chair of the Public Safety and Homeland Security Committee.
Brooks was challenged by a town clerk and environmental non-profit staffer Sarah Ann Shanahan in 2010 and 2012, and Shanahan very nearly beat Brooks, 50%-47%. Shanahan very well may try again and could win. However, there are other option. Darryl Teske, a Dem from Mauston who lost the 2008 primary could try again, as could other Dems on School Boards in the 50th. Brooks won't be safe at all in 2014.
AD-51: OPEN (Howard Marklein (R)) 2012 PVI: D+6 My Rating: Likely Democratic Commentary: The 51st District takes up a large swath west-southwest of Dane County. Lafayette County, and parts of Sauk, Green and Richland counties comprise the district. The major communities here are the small cities of Monroe, Mineral Point, Dodgeville and Darlington. The area is clearly swayed by Rock & Dane County influence, as it voted for Obama with 57%. Howard Marklein was a Spring Green-area accountant before getting elected in the 2010 GOP wave. Marklein is the chair of Ways and Means, and the vice chair of the Audit Committee.
The 51st seat is the only one that I can say with confidence, that Democrats will take from the GOP. This is because a) Marklein is retiring to primary Dale Schultz, b) this is a very Dem District, and c) we already have a solid Dem running. Pat Bomhack, a staffer for Governor Jim Doyle and Senator Russ Feingold, narrowly lost the Democratic Primary to Mo May-Grimm--Mineral Point School Board member and Emerge member. She narrowly lost to Marklein by a mere four points. Bomhack has a head start in this Democratic district, and I am confident that he will be in the State Assembly in 2015.
AD-52: Jeremy Thiesfeldt (R) 2012 PVI: R+7 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 52nd District takes us back to the Fox River Valley. The district consists of the City of Fond du Lac and surrounding towns. Fond du Lac is a city of a little less than 45,000 on the Southern shore of Lake Winnebago that is home to a good number of 2-year tech schools. It's a pretty conservative area, although it's possible for Democrats to win elections in Fond du Lac proper. Jeremy Thiesfeldt was a Fond du Lac City Alder prior to his election to the State Assembly in 2010. Thiesfeldt serves as the Chair of the Consumer Protection Committee, and as Vice-Chair of the Transportation, and Urban Education Committees.
Thiesfeldt defeated two-time candidate and Attorney Paul Czisny by 22 points in 2012. I'm sure the Dems could get in the 40's here, but the GOP in Fond du Lac is very firmly established. Given the district's urban nature, we could lay groundwork to make the 52nd competitive in a couple cycles, but Thiesfeldt is safe for 2014.
AD-53: Michael Schraa (R) 2012 PVI: R+8 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 53rd District encompasses the southwest shore of Lake Winnebago in--appropriately--Winnebago County. The communities of note here are Waupun (literally a mispelling of an American Indian word), the Village of North Fond du Lake, and the Northern port of Oshkosh, which is another ex-industrial Fox River city and the home of Senator Ron Johnson. Michael Schraa was an Oshkosh Stock Broker prior to his election to the State Assembly last November. Schraa is the Vice-chair of the Corrections Committee.
Michael Schraa, first of all, definitely has some political chops--he defeated the sitting State Treasurer, Kurt Schuller, in the Republican primary last year, and went on to defeat his Democratic opponent, Police Investigator Ryan Flejter, 60%-40%. This district is even more formidably GOP than the 52nd, so this is Safe Republican.
AD-54: Gordon Hintz (D) 2012 PVI: D+5 My Rating: Likely Democratic Commentary: The 54th District is essentially the bulk of Oshkosh, WI, which I have already described. Gordon Hintz was a legislative aide in Washington D.C. for ex-Congressman Jay Johnson and Gordon Hintz before getting elected to the State Assembly in 2006. Hintz made headlines for an impassioned speech in the Assembly during the infamous Budget Battle in 2011. Another interesting thing about Hintz is that he was a top competitor for the national air guitar championships in 2003 under the name "Krye Tuff." You can watch Representative Tuff in action here: http://www.thedailypage.com/...
This would probably be a safe Dem district with a different incumbent, but Hintz is known for being controversial: Oshkosh has just enough Republicans where if Hintz gets himself in trouble, the seat could flip. Again, even then Hintz would likely have the upper hand but we should always have one eye here: the Fox Valley can be tricksy.
AD-55: Dean Kaufert (R) 2012 PVI: R+4 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 55th District consist of the cities east of Appleton in Outagamie County, these cities being steel and paper industry cities of Neenah and Menasha. This is, as the Fox Valley is, a conservative area of the state--however, it could get very swingy in future cycles. Dean Kaufert was a businessman and a Neenah City Council member before getting elected to the Assembly back in 1990. Kaufert is the Chair of the Tourism Committee, and the Vice-Chair of the Administrative Rules Committee.
Kaufert is exceptionally established in his district and a Powerful member of the state Assembly: indeed, he was unopposed in 2010 and defeated Democratic opponent Jim Crail by 29 points last November. However, if Kaufert decided to retire a Democrat could do very well in this district, and Party Leadership would be foolish not to make a dedicated effort here. But with Kaufert, this is a safe GOP district.
AD-56: Dave Murphy (R) 2012 PVI: R+8 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 56th is much more hostile territory for Democrats: it starts in northern Appleton, but then takes up rural parts of Outagamie County and northern Winnebago County. This is a stubbornly conservative area. Dave Murphy was the owner of the Inches Away Fitness Center in Greenville, WI prior to his election to the State Assembly last November.
Dave Murphy faced a very close primary in 2012 against Outagamie County Board member Jim Pleuss, whom Murphy defeated by a mere 3 pts. Given the closeness of that primary, Murphy might face a fight in 2014. However, he handily defeated Democratic Appleton attorney Richard Schoenbaum 58%-42% last November, so the GOP should hold this seat easily.
AD-57: OPEN (Penny Bernard Schaber (D)) 2012 PVI: D+6 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: The 57th District is essentially the majority of Appleton, WI (and part of Menasha). Appleton is a city of about 73,000 on the northwest shore of Lake Winnebago, and is notable for housing the prestigious Lawrence University, and still houses a formidable paper industry. Penny Bernard Schaber was a physical therapist and Chairperson of the Wisconsin Sierra Club prior to her election to the State Assembly in 2008. She too is a member of Emerge Wisconsin.
Bernard Schaber will be retiring from the State Assembly to challenge GOP Senator Mike Ellis in 2014 (a LOT more on that in a future diary). Although Bernard Schaber faced a tight election in 2010, she ran unopposed for re-election in 2012 in a safer, and more urban District. I suspect we will see a lively primary among Appleton Democrats from the City Council and Outagamie County Board, the winner of which will go to the State Assembly.
AD-58: Patricia Strachota (R) 2012 PVI: R+21 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 58th District takes us back to the Heart of Darkness, centered in the über-conservative city of West Bend, as well as other communities in rural Washington County. West Bend is an affluent, white-collar community which last ended up in the news for attempting to ban books from its library. Patricia Strachota was a personnel analyst for Washington County's HR department and an elected official from the Washington County board prior to her election to the State Assembly in 2004. Strachota is the Vice-Chair of the Finance Committee.
Strachota was unopposed for re-election in 2012. This district is a complete non-starter.
AD-59: Daniel LeMahieu (R) 2012 PVI: R+21 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 59th District is based in rural areas of Fond du Lac and Washington Counties. The major communities here are Hartford (a small manufacturing town, quite conservative) and New Holstein. Daniel LeMahieu was a Vietnam War Veteran and a newspaper publisher in Cascade before he was elected to the Assembly in 2002. He is the chairman of the powerful Administrative Rules Committee.
LeMahieu was also unopposed for reelection in 2012. The 59th is also a non-starter.
AD-60: Duey Stroebel (R) 2012 PVI: R+20 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 60th District is centered in eastern Washington County and northern Ozaukee County. The major communities here are Cedarburg (a conservative tourist city for historic preservation) and Port Washington (a conservative city along Lake Michigan for historic preservation and boating). Duey Stroebel was a real estate agent and a member of the Cedarburg School Board prior to his election to the Assembly in 2011. He is the Chairman of the State and Local Finance Committee, and the Legislature Co-Chairman of the Joint Survey on Retirement Systems.
Strobel, unlike Strachota and LeMahieu, actually had opposition in 2012 (he won by 42 points). Perhaps Democrats will win it in the year 2492!
AD-61: Samantha Kerkman (R) 2012 PVI: R+7 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 61st District takes us to the Southeast corner of the state. It contains virtually all of Kenosha County outside of the city, and a small corner of Walworth County. Pleasant Prairie is a politically centrist, manufacturing/agribusiness/suburban community south of Kenosha. Other communities of note are the conservative resort cities of Paddock Lake, Twin Lakes and Silver Lake. Samantha Kerkman was the Chief of Staff for ex-Assemblyman Cloyd Porter prior to her election to the State Assembly in 2000. She is a particularly powerful member of the State Assembly, being the Chair of the Audit Committee and Vice-Chair of the Ways and Means Committee.
Kerman was redistricted into an incumbent v. incumbent district in 2012, and she faced fellow Democratic Assemblyman and farmer John Steinbrink of Pleasant Prairie. Despite Steinbrink's Seniority and popularity in Pleasant Prairie, Kerkman walloped him out of office in 2012 56%-44%. Steinbrink was a great fit for the District and if he lost that badly, I cannot see any Democrat winning here barring a wave election. Kerkman is another Republican I could see attempting to succeed Paul Ryan should he decide to call it quits.
AD-62: Tom Weatherston (R) 2012 PVI: R+6 My Rating: Toss-up/Tilts Republican Commentary: The 62nd District is based in northern Racine County. It incorporates the northern part of Racine city, the northern suburbs of Wind Point and North Bay along Lake Michigan, and a vast extent of conservative rural area. This is a conservative district, but Racine County has been notably more friendly to Democrats in recent years (both Obama and Baldwin won it in 2012, and Barrett got very close to doing so in the Recall). Tom Weatherston was an industrial engineer and a member of the Caledonia Village Board prior to his election to the Assembly last November. He is the Vice-Chair of the Workforce Development Committee.
Weatherston faced a very tough challenge from Democratic candidate Melissa Lemke, a public health analyst for the University of Wisconsin, in 2012. Lemke is also an Emerge Wisconsin member. This is yet another race where a little more outside help would have made a difference. Lemke suprassed Obama's performance in the district, holding Weatherston to a 53%-47% victory. Lemke was also named chair of the 1st Congressional District Democrats, which means that she could be looking at another run in 2014. I sincerely hope that she does.
AD-63: Robin Vos (R) 2012 PVI: R+9 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 63rd District takes up Southern Racine outside of the main city. Burlington is the major city here, conservative in nature and the home of multiple breweries (Oh Wisconsin). The rest is the Racine suburb of Sturtevant and more rural area. Robin Vos was a businessman, district director for Paul Ryan, and a member of the Racine County Board prior to his election to the State Assembly in 2004. Vos is currently the Speaker of the State Assembly, and President of the Wisconsin Chapter of ALEC.
Vos faced a spirited challenge from Kelly Albrecht (a political activist), but she fell short in 2012 by 16 points. It needs no saying that Vos is powerful, is a shrewd politician, and has friends in high places (heck, he's friends with Mark Pocan!), so I cannot envision a scenario where Vos loses reelection.
AD-64: Peter Barca (D) 2012 PVI: D+7 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: The 64th District takes up the north of the City of Kenosha, and hits the south of the city of Racine. These are both classic rust-belt, blue collar cities that are slowly transforming into suburbs for Milwaukee and Chicago. Peter Barca was, interestingly, a U.S. Congressman in the 1990s before falling victim to the 1994 Republican Revolution. He returned to his work as a teacher before returning to the Assembly in 2008. He is the Democratic Minority Leader in the Assembly.
Both Racine and Kenosha are pretty Blue-Collar, and Barca holds a lot of hometown popularity in Kenosha, so there's virtually no risk of this seat going to the GOP even if he decides to run for higher office (Barca's name is thrown around in conversations about challenging Scott Walker). The only action here would be between Kenosha Democrats in a Primary.
AD-65: Tod Ohnstad (D) 2012 PVI: D+15 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: The 65th District is based in downtown Kenosha, a city which I previously described. The nature of the area is extremely blue-collar. Tod Ohnstad worked in the Assembly line at Chrysler and served on the Kenosha City Council, and was a UAW union representative prior to his election to the state assembly last November.
This city is very Democratic with a significant minority population, and is only getting bluer with time. Ohnstad will stay in the Assembly for quite some time.
AD-66: Cory Mason (D) 2012 PVI: D+23 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: The 66th District is based in Downtown Racine, another city that I have already described. Cory Mason was an employee for the American Federation of Teachers in Racine prior to his election to the Assembly in 2006. Mason's name has also occasionally been tossed around as a candidate for Governor in 2014.
A Democratic primary if Mason retires is the only political action this District could see in 2014. Gotta love Racine.