My first diary, starting safe in my home state. As this is my first diary, please feel free to critique. Hope you like it!
AD-1: Garey Bies (R) 2012 PVI: R+2 My Rating: Toss-up/Tilt Republican Commentary: The swingiest of swing districts--Romney won here by 34 votes, and Tammy Baldwin won here by 337 votes. A Democrat can obviously win this district based on the Tourism heavy Door County peninsula and industry heavy Kewaunee County. Garey Bies will be difficult to dislodge. Bies, a Door County Native, has lived his entire life in the immediate area and prior to being elected to the state assembly in 2000, he served as Door County's Deputy Sheriff. He chairs the Committee on Corrections and Courts.
In 2012 Bies faced a strong challenge from Democrat Patrick Veeser, a machinist and President of the local UAW in Kewaunee County. He gave Bies his most serious challenge in years and narrowly lost 48.6%-51.3%. Interestingly, Veeser won Kewaunee County whereas Obama and Baldwin both narrowly lost it. Given this, if Veeser wanted to try again in two years, he could topple Bies with a little more institutional support. Another potential candidate is 2008 candidate Dick Skare, who narrowly lost to Bies in the old 1st district by just 2 pts. However, I believe Veeser could do this with a stronger push in Door County and with more outside help.
AD-2: Andre Jacque (R) 2012 PVI: R+7 My Rating: Likely Republican Commentary: This district is based in the Dem-leaning City of Two Rivers in Manitowoc County and stretches up to the moderate-conservative suburbs of Green Bay (The City of De Pere). The district is very conservative in nature, and Governor Walker performed particularly well in this part of the Fox Valley in 2010 and the recall. We did have a Dem Representative from 2009-2011, but to prove a point, that Dem was defeated in 2010 by 24 pts (!) by the current incumbent and Todd Akin protegé, Andre Jacque. An outspoken social conservative and card-carrying member of the Wisconsin Right to Life and previously the Green Bay Transit Coordinator, his primary role in the assembly has been to be the spokesperson for the vaginal ultrasound bill, and to push for English being stated as the state language for Wisconsin (clearly, a very pressing issue for Wisconsin snark)
This should be a safe R district, but due to Jacque's rabid social conservatism he might shoot himself in the foot Akin-syle in a good Dem year. Barring this, however, I regret to say we're stuck with this clown: he won an 18 point victory in 2012 over Larry Pruess, an Educator and former Helicopter Pilot for the US Army. Nancy Nusbaum, former Mayor of De Pere and former Brown County Executive, lives in this District and could go after Jacque, although it would probably be safer for her to run for the State Senate Seat here (if her name sounds familiar, she was a Dem Candidate in the 2011 State Senate Recalls).
AD-3: Alvin Ott (R) 2012 PVI: R+5 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 3rd AD hugs the northeast quarter of Lake Winnebago and is dominated by the villages of Kimberly, Combined Locks, Little Chute, and part of the City of Menasha--all Moderate-to-Conservative Appleton Suburbs that are homes to Wisconsin's Manufacturing Sector, and home to the UW-Fox Valley 2-year University. Rep. Ott was first elected in 1986 and serves as the Chair of the powerful Natural Resources Committee, and worked in Agri-business prior to that, so needless to say, Rep. Ott is a big player in the legislature.
A prominent, moderate Democrat could compete here if Ott were to retire but barring a retirement or a huge implosion, Ott is here to stay. He cruised to a 20-pt. reelection victory over Democrat Kole Oswald in 2012, and managed to to easily win re-election in 2008.
AD-4: Chad Weininger (R) 2012 PVI: R+4 My Rating: Leans Republican Commentary: This district is comprised of the more immediate Green Bay Suburbs of Allouez, Ashwaubenon, some of Howard and a little of Green Bay proper. The district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. It also home to Lambeau Field, home of the Green Bay Packerts (Not Lambert Field, Secretary Kerry!). Chad Weininger was first elected to the Assembly in 2010, and before that he was a long-time Republican operative serving as Chief of Staff to Senator Cowles (R-De Pere), Congressman Mark Green and Green Bay Mayor Jim Schmitt. He is the Chair of the International Trade and Commerce Committee, and the Vice-Chair of the Insurance Committee. Not bad gets for a second term assemblyman.
Tommy Thompson couldn't hit the 50% threshold in this district, which suggests that the 4th could be competitive in the right year. Weininger did do better than Obama and Tammy here, winning over Accountant, Ashwaubenon Village Board Trustee and outspoken Progressive Michael Malcheski (D) 56%-44%. In a better year with the recall in the past, and/or a more moderate candidate, this district could go blue.
AD-5: Jim Steineke (R) 2012 PVI: R+6 My Rating: Likely Republican Commentary: AD-5 contains the cities of Kaukauna, Seymour, the Oneida Indian Reservation and the conservative rural areas in between. The nature of the district is industrial and rural, and generally conservative; however, the Assemblyman here pre-2010 was Tom Nelson, ardent Democratic Assembly Majority Leader and current Outagamie County Executive, and possible 2014 Candidate for Governor. Jim Steineke, a former County Board Member and Real Estate Agent, won here in 2010 when Nelson retired to run for Lieutenant Governor. Steineke swiftly became the assistant Majority leader in the Assembly in 2013, so he is obviously a connected figure.
A Democratic challenger out of Kaukauna could give Steineke a tough race in the right year, but his position in the leadership suggests Steineke would get lots of help in that scenario. However, the Democrats recruited well here in 2012 and got Kaukauna School Board President Jeff McCabe, but Steineke put that race away with a 12 point victory. However, McCabe registered with the GAB to run again, so time will tell...
AD-6: Gary Tauchen (R) 2012 PVI: R+8 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: AD-6 is based in rural Shawano (pronounced "Shauno") County to the Northwest of the Green Bay Metro Area. The largest communities here are Clintonville and the City of Shawano, but the district is very rural and very Republican. Gary Tauchen was first elected in 2006, and never got less than 55% of the vote (in 2008 against Hospital Staffer John Powers). Tauchen was a former farmer and businessman, and serves as the Chair of the Committee on Rural Affairs and as Vice Chair of the Agriculture Committee.
Tauchen faced Powers again in 2012, and handily defeated him again 59%-41%. It is probably safe to assume that Tauchen will be able to keep this seat as long as he wants, barring a primary challenge.
AD-7: Daniel Riemer (D) 2012 PVI: D+5 My Rating: Likely Democratic Commentary: AD-7 takes in some of Southern Milwaukee's borders and parts of the suburbs of West Allis, Greenfield and West Milwaukee, leaving this as a Lean-to-Likely Democratic District. Daniel Riemer was the son of a Governor Doyle aid and a UW-Madison Law Student who decided to primary conservadem incumbent Peggy Krusick who got money from shady school choice and pro-life groups.
This district should be safe barring a 2010-style disaster, thus the "likely" and not "safe" Dem category. Riemer had no Republican challenger in 2012, so he should be fine next year.
AD-8: JoCasta Zamarripa (D) 2012 PVI: D+35 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: This is located in the majority-hispanic section of Milwaukee, so it is safe to assume this is a very safe district. The 8th is Represented by JoCasta Zamarripa, a Hispanic and out bisexual. She was first elected in 2010 and prior to becoming a state legislator, she was a teacher and a Planned Parenthood Staffer. She is young, a member of Emerge Wisconsin, and was recently named Democratic Caucus Vice-Chair, so she is considered to be a rising star in the Milwaukee Area.
AD-9: Josh Zepnick (D) 2012 PVI: D+23 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: Another safe, urban Milwaukee proper District. Representative Zepnick is a more loy-key Democrat; prior to his election in 2002, he was a Congressional Staffer for David Obey. The only danger to Zepnick here would be a primary.
AD-10: Sandy Pasch (D) 2012 PVI: D+38 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: Northern Milwaukee, and majority African-American: ergo, very safely Democratic. This district has been represented by Sandy Pasch since her election in 2008. She is the Democratic Assistant Minority Leader, and is probably best known for challenging State Senator Alberta Darling (R) in the 2011 Recall election and narrowly lost 46%-50%. The last redistricting put Pasch out of Darling's Senate District, making Darling safe and leaving Pasch to fend off a primary challenge from Millle Coby.
AD-11: Mandela Barnes (D) 2012 PVI: D+35 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: Yet Another Safe Dem, Milwaukee proper District. The situation here was similar to the 7th District last year. Mandela Barnes, a young, african-american non-profit organizer and former Mayor Barrett staffer primaried incumbent Jason Fields (a pro-voucher, pro-pay day loan Democrat), and crushed him by 38 points.
AD-12: Frederick P. Kessler (D) 2012 PVI: D+28 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: Another safe Democratic, Milwaukee-proper District. Fred Kessler is a veteran figure in Milwaukee politics, being in the assembly on-and-off since 1960(!). He is a good liberal, and is the type to likely serve in that assembly seat until death do them part.
AD-13: Rob Hutton (R) 2012 PVI: R+10 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: This is a heavy Republican district based in the Milwaukee Suburbs, which contains the city of Brookfield, Village of Elm Grove, and parts of the cities of Wauwatosa and West Allis. Rob Hutton became an assemblyman in 2012, a Brookfield-area CEO and Waukesha County Supervisor who defeated his opponent, John Pokrandt, by 22 points. He serves as the Vice Chair on the Committee of Urban and Local Affairs. The Republican sentiment here is extremely embedded, so this probably won't be a target.
AD-14: Dale P. Kooyenga (R) 2012 PVI: R+10 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: This is a similar, embedded Republican District taking up Brookfield, parts of Wauwautosa, and a small chunk of Milwaukee. Assemblyman Kooyenga, an accountant and Iraq War Veteran, won in the 2010 wave. Assemblyman Kooyenga was reelected in 2012 by 18 points over Engineer Chris Rockwood. He is the vice-chair of the special committee of symposia series of State Income Tax Reform Information. A well-to-do moderate, businessman could win in this district (or the 13th and 15th) in a Democratic wave year, but beyond that don't hold your breath.
AD-15: Joe Sanfelippo (R) 2012 PVI: R+7 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: Another Republican (though somewhat less so) district spanning through the Milwaukee suburbs, from parts of moderate West Allis into the ultra-conservative New Berlin. Joe Sanfelippo was a West Allis-area businessman and a member of the Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors. He faced as good a Democratic get as you can get in this district--Cindy Moore, a former member of the New Berlin School Board--and Sanfelippo beat Moore by a 58%-42% margin. Sanfelippo serves as the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Housing and Real Estate.
Unfortunately, this seat is likely to stay Republican unless a moderate businessperson out of West Allis was to jump in, which very well could happen if 2014 turns out to be a Dem year in the state.
AD-16: Leon Young (D) 2012 PVI: D+38 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: This is an extremely safe, minority-majority district in Milwaukee proper. Leon Young first became an assemblyman in the 1992 election when his aunt decided last-minute not to run for re-election. Young won this Milwaukee seat, and has held it ever since. Unlike most Milwaukee-area Democrats in 2012, he did not face a contested primary.
AD-17: La Tonya Johnson (D) 2012 PVI: D+34 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: And this is yet another, majority-minority Milwaukee District. When Assemblywoman Barbara Toles retired, there was a four-way primary in the 17th District. La Tonya Johnson, manager of a daycare provider and the head of AFSCME Local 502 (which is the daycare providers union, which I had no idea existed) emerged victorious with 43% of the vote. Johnson cruised easily to re-election in 2012 against token opposition.
AD-18: Evan Goyke (D) 2012 PVI: D+37 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: Milwaukee District again. Until the last election, the assemblywoman here was Tamara Grigsby who unfortunately resigned as she was diagnosed with cancer. This made for an eight-member primary field in 2012. Evan Goyke, an attorney and Marquette Law School Assistant Professor, won the primary with 37% and went on to cruise with token opposition in the general election. Incidentally, Goyke's father was a State Senator who ran against Tom Petri in his first election in 1979 and sadly lost.
AD-19: Jon Richards (D) 2012 PVI: D+18 My Rating: Safe Democratic Commentary: Milwaukee district again. Jon Richards was a Milwaukee-area attorney before getting elected to the state assembly in 1998. He has kept a lower profile than some of his colleagues, but he is by all accounts a strong Democrat. As in all districts, a primary would be the only electoral excitement in the 19th
AD-20: Christine Sinicki (D) 2012 PVI: D+6 My Rating: Likely Democratic Commentary: The last Democratic Milwaukee district, and a competitive one! This districts spans across parts of Milwaukee, as well as the cities of Cudahy and St. Francis. This is one of the few swing-ish districts in the Milwaukee County area, but it still leans toward Democrats. Christine Sinicki was first elected to the state assembly in 1998 and was a Milwaukee City School Board member prior to her election.
Luckily, Sinicki has a pretty good hold and understanding of her district, but she has faced some closer elections in 2010 and 2012, which if she retired this district could prove competitive. In 2010, she faced Republican restaurant owner Molly McGartland and only defeated her 53%-47%. McGartland tried again in 2012, but Sinicki defeated her by a larger 58%-42%. Even if Sinicki retired, the district would be Democratic favored, but it is by no means safe.
AD-21: Mark Honadel (R) 2012 PVI: R+4 My Rating: Leans Republican Commentary: This is a swingy district in the southern Milwaukee suburbs, making them somewhat conservative, but not overwhelmingly so. The cities of South Milwaukee and Oak Creek are the base of the 21st District. Incumbent Mark Honadel of South Milwaukee is the Chair of the Energy and Utilities Committee and was first elected in a 2003 special election. Prior to becoming an elected official, he was a businessman and a Welder
Romney and Thompson barely achieved a majority in this district back in 2012, but Honadel beat his Democratic opponent, journalist Bill Kurtz, 59%-41%. However, this is precisely the kind of urban, swing district we need to seriously compete in to gain control of the Assembly. There are Democrats in the business sector here, as well as on the city council and school boards of South Milwaukee and Oak Creek. Honadel hasn't been considered a top target in some time which is a shame, as he easily could be.
AD-22: Don Pridemore (R) 2012 PVI: R+10 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 22nd is an uber-Conservative Republican District based in Menomonee Falls (home to Congressman Jim Sensenbrenner), and encompasses northern Waukesha County and southern Washington County. Don Pridemore was elected to the State Assembly in 2004, and was an Electrical Engineer prior to that. Pridemore serves as the Chair of the Education Committee, Vice Chair on the Committee for Campaigns and Elections.
He also ran for the statewide non-partisan position of Superintendent of Public Instruction against incumbent Tony Evers (nominally non-partisan, but in reality a Democrat). Pridemore had an interesting habit of blacklisting reporters from even conservative media outlets, and in the end lost badly by 22 points statewide. Bluntly, Pridemore is nuts, and he isn't going anywhere.
AD-23: Jim Ott (R) 2012 PVI: R+17 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The insanely Conservative 23rd District runs along the coast of lake Michigan from Grafton in Washington county, down through Thiensville in Ozaukee County, and jutting into Whitefish Bay in Milaukee County. Jim Ott has been an assemblyman since his election in 2006, and prior to that was a Television Meteorologist for a few local stations. Representative Ott serves as Chair of the Judiciary Committee.
There is almost no hope for a Democrat here. Jim Ott is a big shot in the Assembly Republican Caucus, and he defeated his Democratic opponent 62%-38% in 2012.
AD-24: Dan Knodl (R) 2012 PVI: R+9 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 24th is also very Republican, and it is based in Germantown in Washington County, stretching through Ozaukee County, and including the communities of Brown Deer and Glendale in Milwaukee County. Assemblyman Knodl was first elected to the Legislature in 2008. He is also the Vice-Chair on the Education, Jobs and Mining Committee (a pretty important committee in this session), and he also Chairs the Labor Committee, and the special committee for Legal Interventions for persons with Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias. He had previously served on the Washington County Board of Supervisors.
Dan Knodl defeated Democrat Shan Haqqi, the CEO of an international global consulting firm. He was a ridiculously qualified candidate, but he was nevertheless defeated by 24 points.
AD-25: Paul Tittl (R) 2012 PVI: R+5 My Rating: Toss-up/Tilt Republican Commentary: This district based in the city of Manitowoc, and includes some outlying communities in Manitowoc and Calumet Counties. Manitowoc lies on the shore of Lake Michigan, and is a major home to shipbuilding and manufacturing, as well as the home a multiple 2-year tech schools. Paul Tittl was elected in 2012 to succeed Conservadem-turned-Independent Bob Ziegelbauer, he recently became Manitowoc County Executive. Tittl served on the Manitowoc County Board of Supervisors and City Council prior to his election. He serves as Vice Chair of the Consumer Protection Committee.
Manitowoc City and County are politically peculiar: they are conservative places, but are very open to Democrats on the local level (Tommy and Romney barely won them in 2012, but Walker carried the county in a landslide). Tittl won a pretty convincing considering this, defeating fellow Councilman Jim Brey 58%-42%. That being said, the Democratic bench is here is surprisingly big which is why I keep it closer to a toss-up. There multiple City Council and County Board candidates who could go for it, or even rising star mayor Justin Nickels or the Democratic DA.
AD-26: Mike Endsley (R) 2012 PVI: R+6 My Rating: Toss-up/Pure Toss-up Commentary: This district is centered in and around Sheboygan, a Lake Michigan coastal city of about 50,000 famous for its bratwursts and Surfing competitions. The politics in the city are pretty centrist, while the district as a whole leans conservative. Mike Endsley was elected to office in 2010, narrowly defeating Incumbent Democrat Terry Van Akkeren. He chairs the Aging and Long-Term Care Committee. Prior to his election, he was a sales manager.
The situation in Sheboygan city and county is very similar to Manitowoc, as it is a very conservative area that is open to local Democrats. Endsley has run very close elections in the past, and despite 2012 being a bad year locally in Wisconsin, he beat his challenger (Former County Sheriff Mike Helmke) by 2 pts. I would like to see Helmke try again, but if he doesn't Sheboygan City and county have multiple elected Dem. officials who could take this seat back.
AD-27: Steve Kestell (R) 2012 PVI: R+7 My Rating: Likely Republican Commentary: The 27th District encompasses southern Manitowoc County and most of Sheboygan County, including the cities of Kiel, Plymouth, Kohler (yes, that's where they make the toilets) and part of Sheboygan. Steve Kestell, a former hardware store owner, is the Assemblyman here. He serves as Chair of the Education Committee and Vice Chair of the Family Law Committee, and was first elected to the Legislature in 1998.
This district has a significantly thinner bench than the 25th or 26th, and Representative Kestell has obviously been around for a while. That said, his Democratic opponent Steven Bauer, an engineer, managed to get 42% while being off the party radar. That's still 16 points, but it's enough to make me think Kestell is more vulnerable than anyone thinks...
AD-28: Erik Severson (R) 2012 PVI: R+8 My Rating: Likely Republican Commentary: The 28th takes up the general northwest chunk of the state, so it's exceptionally rural. The District stretches through Burnett, Polk, and St. Croix Counties along Minnesota's border. Unfortunately, this area is getting significantly redder as the Twin Cities suburbs that brought you the likes of Michele Bachmann are spreading into this area. Major Communities include Amery and St. Croix Falls. Erik Severson, a physician, defeated incumbent Democrat Ann Hraychuck in 2010. Severson chairs both the Health Committee and the Mental Health Committee.
As I said, this part of Wisconsin is becoming sharply more conservative. Severson held off a pretty low profile Democrat in teacher Adam Bever by a surprisingly close 43%. For this reason, I give Erik Severson a "likely rating, but this is an unpromising district
AD-29: John Murtha (R) 2012 PVI: R+3 My Rating: Leans Republican Commentary: This district consists of the city of New Richmond and the more democratic city of Menomonie, and the rural land in between within Dunn, St. Croix, and Polk Counties. This contains some rapidly reddening area, but is more or less balanced out between a blue shift in Dunn County (Romney barely surpassed 50%, and Tommy Thompson got below 50% in 2012). John Murtha was the Chair of the St. Croix County Board of Supervisors prior to his election to the State Assembly in 2006. Murtha chairs the Committee on Housing and Real Estate. And unlike Pennsylvania's John Murtha, Wisconsin's John Murtha has a wicked cool mustache.
The numbers suggest that this district ought to be competitive, but we don't support a huge bench of candidates in the 29th. In 2012, we got a pretty decent candidate in Jim Swanson, a locally known outdoorsman and educator. However, this race never got attention and Murtha scooted to a 4th term by 12 points. This is a prime example of a district where recruitment is key to a toss-up race.
AD-30: Dean Knudson (R) 2012 PVI: R+5 My Rating: Likely Republican Commentary: The 30th Assembly district is nestled along the Mississippi River in St. Croix County, containing the cities of Hudson (swingly), North Hudson (Deep Red), and River Falls (bluer). Hudson and North Hudson are tourist towns that you reach just before heading in the Twin Cities suburbs, whilst River Falls is a College Town, which makes it more disposed to Democrats. Dean Knudson was the Mayor of Hudson and a former Chairman of the St. Croix County Republican Party prior to his election to the State assembly in 2010.
This district suffers from the same impending Red Wave that the 28th is seeing, but it does have the potential to be competitive. However, Knudson is a very established political figure in the district, seeing as he held off a top-tier Democratic challenger, Emerge member and River Falls Attorney, by a healthy 12 point margin. Perhaps another strong candidate will emerge from River Falls, but Knudson appears to be even safer than the PVI indicates.
AD-31: Amy Loudenbeck (R) 2012 PVI: R+5 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 31st district is located in South-Central Wisconsin, along the Illinois Border. This spans far west Rock County (Beloit/Janesville suburbs) and into the rural, Republican Walworth County. The major communities here are the City of Elkhorn and Fontana-on-Geneva-Lake/Walworth, that are resort towns. Amy Loudenbeck was the President of the Beloit Are Chamber of Commerce and a real estate agent before being elected to the Assembly in 2010. She is the chair of the Workforce Development Committee.
This area has a tradition of electing Republicans, and Loudenbeck is a Republican favorite who doesn't come across as an ideologue--I would say she's the definite favorite for the Senate seat here when Neal Kedzie retires, or even for Paul Ryan's seat someday. She defeated her Democratic opponent Ryan Schroeder by 13 pts. in 2012. Schroeder is a Delevan City Councilman and Chief of Staff to Rep. Zepnick (D-Milwaukee), so this was as a good a get as ever in this District. If Schroeder couldn't do it, Loudenbeck has this seat for as long as she wants.
AD-32: Tyler August (R) 2012 PVI: R+10 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: The 32nd District contains the bulk of Walworth County, so it is very agrarian and very conservative-Republican. The centers of the district are the resort city of Lake Geneva, and the city of Delavan--the home to our very own Scott Walker. Representative Tyler August of Lake Geneva was the Chief of Staff to Rep. Thomas Lothian before succeeding him in the 2010 Election. He is the chair of the Government Operations & State Licensing Committee, and the Co-Chair of the Tax Exemptions Committee.
There's not much to say here. The district is incredibly Conservative, and Rep. August cruised to victory on a 17 point victory with a Libertarian in the race. Very Safe Republican.
AD-33: Stephen Nass (R) 2012 PVI: R+12 My Rating: Safe Republican Commentary: This district is also nigh-hopelessly Republican. It is centered in Southern Jefferson County, and stretches into the rural part of Waukesha County--the heart of darkness. Even the cities here--Fort Atkinson and Jefferson--are not very Democratic by any means. Representative Stephen Nass was first elected to the Assembly in 1990, and prior to that he served on the Whitewater City Council and was a pilot for the Wisconsin Air National Guard. He is the chair on the Committee on Colleges and Universities, a position that he has used to target my school (UW-Madison) on its partisan biases.
Nass won here by 29 points. Waukesha County--the Heart of Darkness, or the Ring of Death is what some of us call it.